Northern lights in Iceland: where, when and what are your real chances?

Where is the best place to see the northern lights in Iceland?

The aurora glows more than a hundred kilometres up. Between two regions of Iceland, the difference has less to do with the aurora itself than with the cloud, the number of tours and their price.

Clear nights: October to March, at least one observation of 2/8 cloud cover or less at 6 pm or midnight (6 pm and 9 pm on the south coast), ten winters between 2013 and 2025 depending on the station. Stations: Reykjavík, Akureyri, Vatnsskarðshólar near Vík, Stykkishólmur on Snæfellsnes, Dalatangi lighthouse in the East.

Reykjavík: the easiest base

More than three northern lights tours in four leave from Reykjavík. Most cost €85 to €145. Half of them stay under €110.

The capital's sky clears on only one night in five. Guides do not wait for it to open above the rooftops: they head for the Reykjanes peninsula, Þingvellir park or the Hvalfjörður fjord, depending on that evening's cloud map.

When activity is strong, you can even see the aurora from the city, over the bay, for instance from the Grótta headland. Elsewhere in town, street lighting washes out much of it.

Without a car, this is the easiest base. Fill your days with glacier hiking from Reykjavík or a snowmobile trip. See the northern lights tours from Reykjavík.

Akureyri and Mývatn: the north as back-up

Akureyri, the northern town, does not have clearer skies than the capital. Observations in the town, at the head of its fjord, show 16% of clear nights between 2013 and 2023. The idea of a drier north does not hold up there.

Its value lies elsewhere. The north is often clear when the south is overcast, and the other way round: on the same evening, at least one of the two towns is clear nearly one time in three. Most tours there cost €100 to €165, including a jeep hunt.

At Mývatn, about a hundred kilometres from Akureyri, the two tours on offer cost €168 and €184. We cannot put a figure on your chances there: the only nearby station records the sky as "obscured" too often to measure the cloud.

Choose the north if your trip goes round the island. It gives you a second weather system. See the tours from Akureyri and Mývatn.

South coast, Snæfellsnes and the East Fjords

None of our northern lights tours leave from these regions, but they matter on a road trip. The south coast near Vík clears as often as Reykjavík. The Snæfellsnes peninsula, two and a half hours' drive north-west of the capital, does better: 27% of nights. In the East Fjords, Dalatangi lighthouse has the most often clear sky in our records, 28%, but it is more than eight hours' drive from Reykjavík.

On a road trip, set aside one or two evenings on Snæfellsnes if you can: it is the clearest region close to the capital.

When is the best time to see the northern lights in Iceland?

The season lasts as long as the night is dark enough. In Reykjavík, the Sun sinks more than 12 degrees below the horizon from 15 August to 26 April. At both ends of the season, nights stay short: seven hours in September, under four in April.

Dark night: Sun more than 12 degrees below the horizon (astronomical calculation). Clear nights: at least one observation of 2/8 cloud cover or less at 6 pm or midnight, winters 2015 to 2025. Active nights: Kp index of at least 3 between 6 pm and 3 am, same winters². In September and April this window starts before full darkness, which slightly flatters the figure. Stays: share with at least one clear night, for every possible arrival date in the month, observed night by night.

The table tells you three things.

• No month is clearly less cloudy. From September to April, Reykjavík's sky clears on 16% to 23% of nights. December and January are the clearest, February the cloudiest.
• Solar activity rises around the equinoxes. Nearly one night in two in September reaches the level at which, according to NOAA³, the aurora becomes "brighter and more active". It is three in ten in December and January.
• The night doubles in length from September to December, from seven hours to nearly fifteen.

For a first trip, aim for October or January. January brings the longest nights and the capital's most often clear sky. October offers stronger activity and days still long enough for sightseeing, with eleven hours of darkness. September tempts with its activity, but its nights are half as long as December's.

According to NOAA, the best hours are from 10 pm to 2 am, and a full moon dims the aurora. One quirk of Iceland: the country runs on London time although it lies much further west. In Reykjavík, solar midnight falls at about 1.30 am. If the sky stays clear, do not head in at midnight.

Which northern lights tour should you book in Iceland?

In Iceland, most tours cost €95 to €165, private tours aside. That is about €25 less than in Norway for a tour at the median price. The gap between offers comes mostly down to the vehicle.

Boat, coach, minibus or super jeep: what changes

The boat leaves Reykjavík's old harbour and reaches the darkness of the bay in fifteen to twenty minutes. Then it stays on the water. When the bay is overcast, it cannot go looking for a break in the cloud a hundred kilometres away.

Coaches, minibuses and super jeeps can. That is where your odds are decided. The smaller the vehicle, the more freely it stops where it wants: minibuses state a maximum of 18 or 19 people, and super jeeps take tracks that coaches avoid.

Combos add a day of sightseeing, the Golden Circle or whale watching. Handy for a short stay, they tie your aurora evening to the day of the visit, whatever the sky.

The free second chance

No tour guarantees an aurora. But nearly one tour in two, among those whose full description we have read, takes you out again for free if the aurora did not show. The terms vary:

• Aurora Viking and ICELANDIA offer unlimited attempts.
• Arctic Adventures lets you come back within three years, Nordur Travel within two.
• Northern Lights Bus, Magic Iceland Travel, EastWest and Special Tours offer another tour, sometimes "subject to availability".
• In Akureyri, Imagine Iceland takes you out again the next night.

Hence a simple rule: book for your first evening. A second chance is no use if your flight leaves the next day. Also check when the operator decides whether to cancel for the weather: David The Guide, for example, decides before 5 pm.

The best-rated operators

Among tours with more than 450 reviews, Aurora Viking's scores 4.8/5, ahead of EastWest (4.6/5) and Nordur Travel (4.5/5). The most reviewed, Northern Lights Bus's coach tour, holds 4.3/5 from more than 15,000 reviews. At the other end, Gray Line Iceland's most reviewed tour stops at 3.7/5 from 1,650 reviews.

For a first stay, a minibus tour with a free second chance, booked for the first evening, gives the best balance, at €100 to €145. On a tight budget, the tours under €75 from Northern Lights Bus, ICELANDIA or Magic Iceland Travel keep the same guarantee.

Tour or self-drive?

A car lets you go wherever the sky opens. Within two and a half hours' drive of Reykjavík, at least one of the four places we measured (the capital, Keflavík airport, the south coast and Snæfellsnes) is clear on 40% of nights. The capital alone is clear on 19%. One clear spot does not make a whole region clear, but the gap shows what the drive is worth.

The trade-off: you drive at night on winter roads, which wind or snow sometimes close. Three tools are enough to decide whether to go out:

• For cloud, the Icelandic Met Office map on vedur.is. Green means cloud, white means clear sky. The figure from 0 to 9 forecast for midnight is the Kp index⁴.
• For road conditions, umferdin.is, run by the Icelandic Road and Coastal Administration.
• For alerts, safetravel.is.

If you have no experience of driving on snow, a tour remains the safer choice. The guide does the driving and follows the cloud map all evening.

Iceland or Norway for the northern lights?

Iceland is cheaper, Norway has clear skies more often.

Solar activity is the same on both sides. If the northern lights are the point of the trip, Norway gives you more clear nights for the same stay. If they come with a winter trip among glaciers and waterfalls, Iceland puts them within reach for less, as long as you stay one night longer.

To compare: the northern lights in Norway, and tours in Finland and Sweden.